The trade war between the United States and China has resumed in full force with a new tariff chapter. The recent imposition of 55% tariffs by the United States on Chinese products, followed by a more moderate response from China with 10% on U.S. goods, marks the end of the truce and a return to economic confrontation between the world’s two major powers.

Although the measures are focused on protecting domestic industries, the effects transcend their borders and have a ripple effect on emerging economies such as Ecuador’s, which are inserted in global value chains and depend heavily on logistical and trade stability.

For Ecuador, the consequences are not long in coming. In the short term, the country faces a scenario of volatility that could make key inputs imported from China more expensive. Machinery, technology, fertilizers and chemicals, all essential for sectors such as agribusiness, construction and local manufacturing, could be affected by access restrictions or price increases due to contractual uncertainty. This situation threatens to generate increases in production costs, put pressure on consumer prices and compromise the competitiveness of domestic industry.

At the logistics level, the conflict between the two giants adds pressure to Asian ports, which were already operating at the limit of their capacity. Delays, container shortages and the increase in freight rates further complicate the situation for Ecuadorian importers and exporters. This translates into longer transit times, uncertain planning and greater risk of non-delivery, which affects not only costs, but also the reliability of operations.

In a context where the U.S. and China will seek to diversify suppliers and reduce their mutual dependence, Ecuador could position itself as a reliable alternative source for Ecuadorian products. This will be viable if the country can guarantee traceability, quality, regulatory compliance and logistical responsiveness. In addition, this scenario should accelerate trade negotiations, through tariff preference updates, bilateral agreements or more flexible integration mechanisms.

At the same time, the country must make progress in improving its logistics infrastructure, digitizing customs processes and interoperability between ports and operators, in order to absorb a possible increase in demand and respond efficiently to the new trade dynamics. Route diversification, working with multiple operators and cargo consolidation with regional allies also become fundamental strategies in this new environment.

In the long term, if a trend towards protectionism and the fragmentation of global chains consolidates, economies such as Ecuador’s could be left in a vulnerable position. The only way to counteract this risk will be to strengthen innovation, improve productivity and build an exportable supply based not only on price, but also on sustainability, differentiation and value added.