Post-ceasefire Hormuz, Section 301 in motion, and the RTA with uncertain effective date: three variables running simultaneously

March delivered the shock. April revealed the shock is not temporary. The April 8 ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran did not restore transit through the Strait of Hormuz, did not bring crude prices down, and did not prevent a new attack from occurring on May 3. At the same time, Section 301 hearings before the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative began on April 28, with Ecuador ranked 16th out of 60 economies under investigation, and the signed Reciprocal Trade Agreement will not be in effect by July 24, when the temporary tariff framework expires. All three processes are running in parallel, on their own timelines, and their effects intersect across the same Ecuadorian export sectors.

Executive Action: None of the three clocks pauses while the others tick forward. Any company that has not modeled its exposure to the July 24 deadline before June 15 will be operating in reactive mode at the year’s most uncertain moment.

Clock 1 / Hormuz: The ceasefire halted the bombing, not the disruption. The Iranian Parliament is legislating permanent control of the strait. New in April: the jet fuel crisis reached an operational trigger date (IATA projects cancellations in Europe starting late May).

Clock 2 / Section 301: Hearings began on April 28. Ecuador is under investigation for forced labor, subsidies, and environmental dumping. The shrimp sector is the most exposed and falls outside the RTA’s protective umbrella. The temporary tariff framework deadline is July 24.

Clock 3 / RTA: Signed and undergoing constitutional review. If the Constitutional Court requires passage through the National Assembly, the effective date shifts to August–October 2026 — months after the temporary tariffs the agreement was meant to replace have already expired.